Polished-Steel
0xe2ee809a13aad9e367ee526547a87d1387cf0af2
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
153
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$147.00
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 153- YES
Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on November 27?
7000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
3500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
2539 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-28.43
- YES
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
1751 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
1544 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?
1364 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
1315 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
1200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
1143 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's video get between 66 and 67 million views on day 4?$1.05May 5, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's video get between 67 and 68 million views on day 4?$1.04May 5, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3?$1.05May 5, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$5.35May 5, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$5.34May 5, 16:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$19.69May 5, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$13.50Feb 10, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$9.20Feb 10, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$11.40Feb 9, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.92Feb 9, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$0.61Feb 9, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$24.95Feb 9, 22:02 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.05Feb 8, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$15.00Feb 7, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$20.00Feb 7, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$1.25Feb 4, 11:21 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.03Feb 3, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$5.00Feb 2, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$5.00Feb 2, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$1.00Jan 30, 14:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 26, 23:35 UTC
- Last active
- May 5, 17:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.