Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.9K

Realised

$-319.22

Win rate

189 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
334 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-12.73
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
274 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-23.75
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
262 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-45.33
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
252 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-34.09
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
233 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-37.28
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
231 shares @ 21.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-49.78
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
220 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-44.66
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9AM ET
208 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-8.97
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
207 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-80.90
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
203 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-46.44

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$0.00May 31, 02:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$0.00May 28, 20:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$0.00May 28, 18:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$0.00May 28, 13:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$0.01May 28, 01:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$0.01May 27, 23:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$0.00May 27, 23:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$0.00May 27, 22:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$0.01May 27, 19:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.01May 27, 19:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$0.01May 27, 19:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.01May 27, 18:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$0.02May 27, 17:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.02May 27, 17:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$0.01May 27, 16:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$0.03May 27, 06:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$0.04May 27, 04:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$0.05May 27, 03:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$0.05May 27, 01:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$0.06May 27, 00:55 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 189 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

189 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry37 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk22 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $0.78
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 25, 02:51 UTC
Last active: May 31, 02:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 189 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:56:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data