Belated-Tuba-Selfconfidence
0xe307297418407281f57c79fe197527003ab0da09
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
196
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-828.10
Realised
$-509.35
Win rate
0%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 196- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?
120 shares @ 9.1¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$104.40
$93.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22?
160 shares @ 9.1¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$97.60
$83.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22?
240 shares @ 9.1¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$92.40
$70.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22?
200 shares @ 9.1¢·now 44.6¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$89.20
$71.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22?
240 shares @ 9.1¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$85.20
$63.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22?
160 shares @ 9.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$80.80
$66.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22?
200 shares @ 9.1¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$71.00
$52.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22?
160 shares @ 9.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$69.60
$55.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22?
200 shares @ 9.1¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$66.00
$47.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22?
160 shares @ 9.1¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$63.20
$48.65
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 22?$0.08Jun 22, 03:11 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:11 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:11 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:11 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 22?$0.07Jun 22, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22?$0.04Jun 22, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 22?$0.19Jun 22, 03:10 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Houston on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:10 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:10 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:10 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:10 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:09 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:09 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:07 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:07 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:07 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:07 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Amsterdam on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:04 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22?$40.00Jun 22, 03:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
40 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $0.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 01:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 03:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.