Vital-Smelting
0xe32a958eef2b41523778a6f3174f010e6498a7f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$176.75
Win rate
84%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be -1°C or below on May 11?
871 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
257 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-20.54
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
253 shares @ 27.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-70.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
167 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.61
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
156 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-19.16
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
155 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-12.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
142 shares @ 20.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-29.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 6?
138 shares @ 47.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-65.61
- NO
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?
132 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
120 shares @ 23.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-28.35
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 19?$5.85Jul 19, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 19?$12.37Jul 19, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 19?$51.32Jul 19, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 19?$16.00Jul 19, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 18?$26.27Jul 18, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 18?$69.76Jul 18, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 18?$62.40Jul 18, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 18?$87.52Jul 18, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 18?$69.97Jul 18, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 18?$82.81Jul 18, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 18?$42.70Jul 18, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 18?$12.24Jul 18, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 18?$6.07Jul 18, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?$0.15Jul 17, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?$44.96Jul 17, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?$40.23Jul 17, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 16?$43.41Jul 16, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 16?$25.64Jul 16, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 16?$10.36Jul 16, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 16?$2.39Jul 16, 21:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $40.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 15:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 13:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.