Wallet digest

active

Activity score

47/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.3K

Realised

$-69.66

Win rate

41%

58 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
2196 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-105.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
2007 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
1750 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
571 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
541 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
524 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
512 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
510 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.08Jul 15, 23:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.04Jul 15, 23:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$1.05Jul 15, 23:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.05Jul 15, 23:17 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.47Jul 15, 23:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.05Jul 15, 23:16 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$2.84Jul 15, 22:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$1.05Jul 15, 22:54 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$1.18Jul 15, 22:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$1.03Jul 15, 22:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.09Jul 15, 21:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.03Jul 15, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half$8.37Jul 15, 20:46 UTC
TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$9.95Jul 15, 20:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$25.66Jul 15, 19:48 UTC
TRADESELLEngland leading at halftime?$2.93Jul 15, 19:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland leading at halftime?$10.43Jul 15, 19:38 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$28.13Jul 13, 01:14 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$20.40Jul 13, 01:13 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$79.58Jul 13, 01:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

41% win rate over 58 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

58 closed markets, 41% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $11.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 6, 09:30 UTC
Last active: Jul 15, 23:26 UTC
Win rate sample: 58 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 01:09:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data