Minor-Vanilla
0xe38144dd45632a9f59fe210038f8c0e99de13ba9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$3.2K
Realised
$1.8K
Win rate
95%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Leavitt say "Commander in Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing?
698 shares @ 34.4¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$582.62
$342.81
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?
508 shares @ 29.4¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$281.98
$132.65
- YES
Will Merck & Co (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?
275 shares @ 71.9¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$215.88
$18.03
- YES
Will Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting?
348 shares @ 42.5¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$210.56
$62.74
- YES
Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?
233 shares @ 58.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$203.88
$67.17
- YES
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?
224 shares @ 62.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$198.44
$59.48
- YES
Will Datadog (DDOG) beat quarterly earnings?
218 shares @ 62.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$190.75
$54.04
- YES
Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?
216 shares @ 68.4¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$181.49
$33.75
- YES
Will Expedia Group (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?
203 shares @ 47.8¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$169.50
$72.44
- YES
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?
198 shares @ 57.9¢·now 85.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$168.30
$53.59
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$5.00Jul 28, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Leavitt say "Commander in Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing?$36.75Jul 28, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting?$16.00Jul 28, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?$153.55Jul 28, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Commander in Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing?$261.54Jul 28, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting?$169.51Jul 28, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting?$270.71Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Venezuela" during cabinet meeting?$1.55Jul 28, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Venezuela" during cabinet meeting?$6.85Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Venezuela" during cabinet meeting?$0.52Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Venezuela" during cabinet meeting?$185.29Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?$1.00Jul 28, 20:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Fraud" during earnings call?$0.00Jul 28, 20:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Big Brother E13?$8.22Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Big Brother E13?$50.45Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?$0.67Jul 28, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during cabinet meeting?$73.26Jul 28, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?$4.00Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Venezuela" during cabinet meeting?$48.00Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
95% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
59 closed markets, 95% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $56.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.