Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-345.37

Realised

$-54.94

Win rate

47 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 48

YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 8?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 8?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 8?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
86 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-51.00
YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
64 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?
61 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
54 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 6?
51 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
FRANCE
Spread: France (-3.5)
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$0.05Jul 19, 21:13 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$6.13Jul 19, 18:48 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$23.22Jul 19, 16:41 UTC
TRADESELLFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score$22.70Jul 18, 22:21 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Both Teams to Score$15.25Jul 18, 20:57 UTC
REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$15.69Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$8.20Jul 14, 20:55 UTC
TRADESELLFrance vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$8.01Jul 14, 20:52 UTC
TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$29.59Jul 14, 11:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$0.00Jul 12, 08:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$0.00Jul 12, 08:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$2.06Jul 12, 08:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Jul 12, 08:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$5.19Jul 12, 08:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$4.19Jul 12, 08:26 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$2.26Jul 12, 08:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$3.09Jul 12, 08:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$2.04Jul 12, 08:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$8.00Jul 12, 08:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$2.10Jul 12, 08:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 47 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

47 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry58 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $20.16
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 20:52 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 21:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 47 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 05:34:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data