Subdued-Pasta
0xe39783f92ee0985f1ab5fe514030f946825abfcb
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$19.6K
Total PnL
$-108.90
Realised
$856.60
Win rate
84%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
2000 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.0K
$133.50
- NO
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
2001 shares @ 65.4¢·now 61.5¢·exp Oct 20, 2026$1.2K
$-78.64
- NO
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
1245 shares @ 81.4¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.2K
$182.54
- YES
Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?
1030 shares @ 71.3¢·now 96.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$997.33
$262.73
- YES
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
866 shares @ 94.4¢·now 68.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$592.25
$-225.06
- YES
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
1285 shares @ 35.4¢·now 42.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$539.70
$84.50
- NO
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
828 shares @ 50.7¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$500.73
$80.86
- NO
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
1872 shares @ 36.9¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$496.03
$-193.96
- YES
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
2213 shares @ 37.9¢·now 21.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$464.74
$-374.35
- NO
Visa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 11.5%-12.5%?
767 shares @ 61.9¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$414.05
$-60.74
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Apple say "App Store" during earnings call?$53.01Jul 28, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon say "Third Party Seller" during earnings call?$47.16Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call?$0.05Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$78.41Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Robotic / Robotics" during earnings call?$13.51Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Robertson win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?$279.20Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" 30+ times during earnings call?$137.56Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple say "Tariff" during earnings call?$96.88Jul 28, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Third Party Seller" during earnings call?$41.41Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$62.71Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Anthropic" during earnings call?$125.86Jul 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Robotic / Robotics" during earnings call?$100.54Jul 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?$92.07Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Delivery" 10+ times during earnings call?$139.73Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Prime" 10+ times during earnings call?$334.26Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Tariff" during earnings call?$93.21Jul 28, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?$13.35Jul 28, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "App Store" during earnings call?$46.36Jul 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Roadmap" during earnings call?$5.12Jul 28, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Roadmap" during earnings call?$0.93Jul 28, 14:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
75/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
43 closed markets, 84% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
$7.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $86.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 10:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.