Frightened-Junket
0xe3dca3493f9092b755eb99768cdc81485d86351d
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$14.19
Total PnL
$-115.07
Realised
$-1.84
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?
1255 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$5.65
$3.14
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?
381 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.86
$-0.19
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?
380 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.85
$1.71
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
1255 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$1.88
$-0.63
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?
382 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.95
$-0.95
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?
1310 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?
1310 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?
1310 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
21 shares @ 36.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-7.80
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
19 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$7.01Jul 5, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$7.14Jul 5, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$6.81Jul 5, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$7.01Jul 5, 11:19 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$7.01Jul 5, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$6.81Jul 5, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$7.00Jul 5, 11:10 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$7.01Jul 5, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$6.87Jul 5, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$6.81Jul 5, 11:09 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$5.00Jul 5, 11:05 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$6.59Jul 5, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$6.19Jul 5, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$4.81Jul 5, 11:04 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$6.59Jul 5, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$6.22Jul 5, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$7.14Jul 5, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$6.87Jul 5, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$6.61Jul 5, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$7.01Jul 5, 10:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $5.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 09:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 11:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.