Secret-Editorial
0xe3de83f80ba5e14545a16a572974a810eac978dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$129.31
Total PnL
$-68.95
Realised
$80.78
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
113 shares @ 88.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.41
$4.41
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
1242 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.29
$-35.64
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
38 shares @ 40.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.44
$-9.56
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
357 shares @ 7.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.18
$-19.82
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
436 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
333 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-16.66
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
207 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.88
- NO
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
78 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.57
- NO
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?
78 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$5.47Jul 1, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$4.50Jul 1, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$1.96Jul 1, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$3.92Jul 1, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$3.44Jul 1, 05:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$0.08Jul 1, 01:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$1.15Jun 30, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$7.72Jun 30, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$0.05Jun 30, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$11.04Jun 30, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$20.00Jun 30, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$6.00Jun 30, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$5.20Jun 29, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$6.60Jun 29, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$13.20Jun 29, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$25.00Jun 29, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$5.00Jun 29, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$10.00Jun 29, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$10.00Jun 29, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$30.00Jun 28, 20:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 08:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 05:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.