Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

198

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-883.44

Realised

$-50.69

Win rate

197 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 198

YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
504 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?
262 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
150 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
148 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-45.97
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
140 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?
129 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Sweden?
125 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 2?$2.07Aug 1, 21:41 UTC
TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1?$2.10Aug 1, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 2?$2.55Aug 1, 21:23 UTC
TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 2?$2.30Aug 1, 21:23 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 2?$1.04Aug 1, 21:23 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.07Aug 1, 20:17 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.42Aug 1, 20:17 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.07Aug 1, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.06Aug 1, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 2?$1.05Aug 1, 15:55 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1?$1.03Aug 1, 15:36 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$0.88Aug 1, 12:07 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.05Aug 1, 12:05 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.07Aug 1, 12:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$1.04Aug 1, 11:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$1.06Aug 1, 11:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$1.67Aug 1, 11:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$1.03Aug 1, 11:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$3.57Aug 1, 11:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$1.06Aug 1, 11:39 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 197 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

197 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry38 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $4.74
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
Last active: Aug 1, 21:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 197 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:40:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data