Handmade-Implementation
0xe4128aab2fe1f89b1cc0e047b35a377a09654356
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$0.53
Total PnL
$-520.01
Realised
$28.36
Win rate
21%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 17?
18 shares @ 17.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.53
$-2.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25?
1900 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on July 10?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 10?
989 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C or higher on July 19?
763 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 10?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 7?
429 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 6?
372 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-11.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17?
275 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 17?$2.73Aug 16, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 17?$0.25Aug 16, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?$2.11Aug 16, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?$0.10Aug 16, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?$1.78Aug 16, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?$0.14Aug 16, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?$0.08Aug 16, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?$4.60Aug 16, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?$9.86Aug 16, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 15?$14.98Aug 15, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 15?$12.27Aug 15, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 14?$13.99Aug 14, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 14?$13.07Aug 14, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 13?$0.94Aug 13, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 13?$5.99Aug 13, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 13?$6.29Aug 13, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 13?$0.01Aug 13, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 13?$5.02Aug 13, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 13?$4.80Aug 12, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?$3.00Aug 12, 13:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 07:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 14:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.