Shoddy-Surfboard
0xe4261d86566676003027d2967fa05811542db972
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-531.64
Realised
$-177.92
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will XRP dip to $1.20 May 18-24?
242 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.45
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?
222 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 31?
199 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.78
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 28?
183 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.35
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 28?
182 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-49.74
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on January 31?
141 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.83
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 13?
128 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.08
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?
100 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will XRP dip to $1.40 on March 20?
97 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-26.79
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 11?
97 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.83
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on July 24?$203.21Jul 24, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on July 24?$201.58Jul 23, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 15?$3.04Jul 14, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 9?$3.35Jul 9, 00:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 2?$196.86Jul 2, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 2?$194.30Jul 1, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?$219.79Jun 1, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?$218.25May 31, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.20 May 18-24?$1.55May 24, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23?$1.60May 23, 01:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20?$200.74May 20, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20?$198.53May 19, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 19?$1.23May 19, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 9?$224.56May 9, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 9?$222.76May 8, 17:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 28?$181.82May 8, 17:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?$220.44May 2, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 28?$179.82Apr 28, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?$0.44Apr 26, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?$218.46Apr 26, 03:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $70.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 31, 01:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 16:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.