Bare-Mole
0xe45745a3a93f1db74bf66992c7e216a861343921
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
76
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-301.39
Realised
$-3.16
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21?
409 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
109 shares @ 18.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-19.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21?
66 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
19 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 10?
19 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?
19 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 2?
18 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 4?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$7.41Jul 14, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 14?$7.27Jul 14, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?$0.32Jul 14, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$4.11Jul 14, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 14?$1.49Jul 14, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 14?$4.11Jul 14, 12:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 13?$4.76Jul 13, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 14?$0.60Jul 13, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 14?$4.13Jul 13, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 13?$10.06Jul 13, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 13?$6.12Jul 13, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 13?$4.10Jul 13, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 14?$2.06Jul 13, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 14?$4.09Jul 13, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 14?$2.07Jul 13, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$2.07Jul 13, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 14?$4.12Jul 13, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 14?$2.06Jul 13, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 14?$4.13Jul 13, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 13?$2.06Jul 13, 10:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
1/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 20:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 23:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.