Scientific-Trailer
0xe46e0ee94e1894d6a296b37fbe1daf55eb19c07d
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-23.22
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
18303 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-122.14
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
9459 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-69.39
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
5318 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-23.97
- NO
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?
4000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
2815 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-45.90
- YES
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
2379 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.80
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?
1875 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?
1533 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?
1469 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-62.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
1410 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-59.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$58.04Jul 16, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SK Torpedo Kutaisi vs. Zirə FK end in a draw?$8.08Jul 16, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SK Torpedo Kutaisi vs. Zirə FK end in a draw?$9.01Jul 16, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$463.65Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$175.08Jul 15, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-14?$166.67Jul 14, 21:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill SK Iberia 1999 vs. FC Flora end in a draw?$33.33Jul 14, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SK Iberia 1999 vs. FC Flora end in a draw?$7.28Jul 14, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-14?$51.75Jul 14, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?$75.16Jul 12, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?$13.54Jul 12, 01:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$92.78Jul 12, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$24.78Jul 11, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Sweden end in a draw?$25.84Jun 30, 19:53 UTC
- REDEEMCôte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Second half draw?$125.78Jun 30, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Second half draw?$49.95Jun 30, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYCôte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?$49.85Jun 30, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?$30.52Jun 29, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?$28.49Jun 29, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?$40.85Jun 28, 18:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $47.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 07:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 07:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.