Arid-Socialism
0xe4819a3493eb473b0f3c92e44f38a638976732a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-570.41
Realised
$5.14
Win rate
51%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 2?
319 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-19.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 13?
148 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 3?
125 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29?
120 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 16?
110 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10?
93 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15?
93 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 30?$1.55Jul 30, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 25?$2.00Jul 25, 23:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 25?$5.11Jul 25, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 24?$5.00Jul 25, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 24?$2.31Jul 24, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?$2.08Jul 24, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 24?$2.89Jul 24, 09:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$10.00Jul 23, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$7.98Jul 23, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?$0.57Jul 23, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?$1.87Jul 23, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 25?$2.70Jul 23, 10:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$2.08Jul 22, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 22?$0.23Jul 22, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 24?$2.16Jul 22, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 22?$0.91Jul 22, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 22?$1.60Jul 22, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$1.03Jul 22, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?$1.98Jul 22, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?$1.24Jul 22, 11:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
41 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 09:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 12:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.