Wallet digest

active

Activity score

34/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-29.8K

Realised

$720.03

Win rate

10%

39 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 44

NO
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
25188 shares @ 74.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-18.7K
NO
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
7579 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026
$0.00
$-2.5K
NO
North Korea missile launch by December 31?
5745 shares @ 73.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-4.2K
UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?
3022 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$0.00
$-260.24
NO
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
2360 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-1.1K
NO
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
1344 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.2K
UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?
1115 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-301.66
UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?
905 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-136.98
UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5?
605 shares @ 29.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026
$0.00
$-179.00
UP
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25?
488 shares @ 83.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-409.20

Recent activity

TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$4.15Aug 14, 18:41 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.39Aug 14, 18:32 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$20.74Aug 14, 18:26 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.37Aug 14, 18:24 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$20.74Aug 14, 18:23 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$20.75Aug 14, 18:06 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$20.75Aug 14, 18:04 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.37Aug 14, 18:02 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$0.26Aug 14, 18:01 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$20.74Aug 14, 17:24 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.36Aug 14, 17:23 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.37Aug 14, 17:20 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$6.22Aug 14, 17:18 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.36Aug 14, 16:54 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.35Aug 14, 16:49 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.35Aug 14, 16:46 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.34Aug 14, 16:45 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.34Aug 14, 16:44 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$10.33Aug 14, 16:42 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$20.65Aug 14, 16:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

10% win rate over 39 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

39 closed markets, 10% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry52 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $16.62
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 29, 17:46 UTC
Last active: Aug 14, 18:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 39 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:23:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data