Respectful-Keystone
0xe49efc1754bb0d4c5db6bf53a1bb6c1c9554ef6b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-147.29
Realised
$-1.88
Win rate
0%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on August 17?
4242 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?
300 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 27?
200 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?
120 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-11.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 17?
105 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 27?
60 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 17?
50 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 7?
50 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on August 17?$20.00Aug 18, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?$6.60Aug 18, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?$3.85Aug 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?$3.55Aug 18, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?$10.00Aug 18, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?$3.00Aug 18, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?$1.35Aug 18, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?$1.94Aug 18, 02:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 17?$10.00Aug 17, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 17?$15.00Aug 17, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$1.05Aug 17, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$0.35Aug 17, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$0.15Aug 17, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$0.15Aug 17, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$0.15Aug 17, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$0.75Aug 17, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$0.39Aug 17, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$3.53Aug 17, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$0.47Aug 17, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 17?$4.20Aug 17, 15:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 13:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 05:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.