Substantial-Clock
0xe4a136e34c31cd603454b18967f6e3c547999251
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-152.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 5?
5621 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-50.73
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 21?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6?
447 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-32.05
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
277 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
180 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.92
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
177 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-16.96
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 22?
128 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 23?
86 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$1.00Feb 19, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?$1.00Feb 19, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$2.25Feb 19, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$3.00Jan 29, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$1.78Jan 29, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 25, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 25, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?$3.15Jan 25, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 21?$4.00Jan 21, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 23?$3.00Jan 21, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 22?$5.00Jan 21, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $82.5-$85 in January?$11.41Jan 21, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 21?$12.00Jan 20, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$8.20Jan 7, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$8.19Jan 7, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$6.96Jan 7, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$4.00Jan 7, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$4.00Jan 7, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?$7.92Jan 7, 11:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle at $77.5-$80 in January?$7.92Jan 7, 11:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $7.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 5, 15:19 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 19, 16:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.