Those-Horseradish
0xe4c56591cc2bc8d492139651ca9763103877dcb1
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$49.13
Total PnL
$-133.32
Realised
$7.77
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
373 shares @ 40.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$35.44
$-113.76
- YES
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026?
81 shares @ 46.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.14
$-29.32
- NO
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 61.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.94
$1.50
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?
1 shares @ 33.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.88
$0.54
- NO
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
1 shares @ 40.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.60
$0.20
- YES
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2 shares @ 6.2¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.07
$-0.06
- YES
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
1 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.04
$-0.13
- YES
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?
1 shares @ 9.0¢·now 1.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.02
$-0.07
Recent activity
- REDEEMU.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?$2.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - November 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMBonk Guy mindshare all time high by March 31?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Zootopia 2" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 9, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMOlympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce$0.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- REDEEMManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5$614.00Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $161.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 03:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 16:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.