0xe4ca64da2fab15d5626f8f53983b3cd0592ffadf
0xe4ca64da2fab15d5626f8f53983b3cd0592ffadf
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$44.53
Total PnL
$-41.39
Realised
$-3.52
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
13 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$12.72
$6.87
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
8 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$7.52
$3.38
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
6 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$6.05
$2.66
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
6 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$5.68
$2.44
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$5.49
$3.07
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
3 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$3.04
$1.70
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$2.27
$1.32
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
2 shares @ 38.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$1.76
$1.09
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
31 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-11.72
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
20 shares @ 36.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.55
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$0.00Jul 27, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.98Jul 27, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$3.54Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$3.08Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$3.34Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$2.20Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$5.75Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.90Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$0.00Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$0.00Jul 27, 13:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$0.00Jul 27, 13:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$12.59Jul 27, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$7.43Jul 27, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$5.29Jul 27, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$0.00Jul 27, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$10.03Jul 27, 03:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$0.00Jul 27, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$0.00Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$9.81Jul 27, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$4.34Jul 27, 02:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $4.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 15:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 13:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.