Truthful-Piety
0xe4d2b6d3ebcf0aef05119ef7cd27248e64d6ff97
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-480.40
Realised
$30.49
Win rate
92%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4?
516 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28?
221 shares @ 20.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-44.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 27?
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5?
103 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 30?
101 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
95 shares @ 36.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
94 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
90 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-39.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30?
80 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-28.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$30.00Jul 13, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$11.59Jul 13, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$41.41Jul 11, 15:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$75.47Jun 30, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$41.32Jun 30, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$5.25Jun 29, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$31.28Jun 29, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$31.43Jun 29, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?$19.29Jun 19, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?$4.98Jun 19, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19?$9.62Jun 19, 01:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18?$50.00Jun 18, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18?$2.01Jun 18, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18?$17.01Jun 18, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$0.92Jun 17, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$4.08Jun 17, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$5.50Jun 17, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$5.00Jun 17, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$1.59Jun 17, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$4.50Jun 17, 05:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $9.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 19:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 12:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.