0xe4d911b5a4acf6561d100f5068fb10ca4071af28
0xe4d911b5a4acf6561d100f5068fb10ca4071af28
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$64.95
Total PnL
$-243.76
Realised
$0.68
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 30?
39 shares @ 32.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$14.43
$1.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 29?
49 shares @ 26.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$12.49
$-0.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 30?
49 shares @ 27.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$12.00
$-1.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?
77 shares @ 16.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$10.39
$-1.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?
40 shares @ 25.7¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$9.68
$-0.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 29?
89 shares @ 10.3¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.36
$-3.88
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?
86 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.47
$-11.68
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?
33 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.11
$-12.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 23?
85 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 25?
78 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?$12.84Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 30?$13.71Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 28?$29.11Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?$10.52Jul 28, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 30?$12.90Jul 28, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?$12.86Jul 28, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?$12.67Jul 28, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 29?$9.65Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 29?$13.21Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?$11.35Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?$12.54Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 27?$37.00Jul 28, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 27?$18.00Jul 27, 23:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 27?$36.00Jul 27, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 26?$29.28Jul 26, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 27?$7.96Jul 26, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 27?$5.93Jul 26, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 27?$6.78Jul 26, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 27?$6.55Jul 26, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 27?$6.12Jul 26, 11:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $9.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 11:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.