0xe542c89e153eb16c360a119aa76448198225a794
0xe542c89e153eb16c360a119aa76448198225a794
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$151.11
Total PnL
$1.68
Realised
$-1.28
Win rate
29%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Netflix win the most Emmys?
11 shares @ 69.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$9.25
$1.42
- NO
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.24
$0.00
- YES
Will HBO Max win the most Emmys?
13 shares @ 44.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$8.08
$2.39
- NO
Will the Lions win the season series against the Packers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
10 shares @ 76.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$7.58
$0.00
- NO
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?
8 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$7.16
$0.23
- NO
Will Apple TV win the most Emmys?
9 shares @ 80.1¢·now 80.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$6.92
$-0.01
- YES
Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
11 shares @ 60.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$6.36
$-0.05
- YES
Will the Seahawks win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
10 shares @ 64.6¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$6.32
$-0.01
- NO
Will the Dolphins win the season series against the Bills during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
6 shares @ 97.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$5.94
$-0.19
- YES
Will Josh Green be the Hawaii Democratic nominee for Governor?
6 shares @ 93.8¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$5.62
$0.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLMicrosoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 38%-40%?$0.01Jul 24, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Dolphins win the season series against the Bills during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$0.18Jul 24, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.38Jul 23, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.07Jul 23, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.98Jul 23, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?$0.14Jul 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.63Jul 23, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.12Jul 23, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.20Jul 23, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Josh Green be the Hawaii Democratic nominee for Governor?$0.01Jul 23, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.01Jul 23, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.13Jul 23, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?$0.03Jul 23, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HBO Max win the most Emmys?$0.21Jul 23, 23:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the season series between the Bills and Jets end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$0.01Jul 23, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bills win the season series against the Jets during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$0.01Jul 23, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Seahawks win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$0.01Jul 23, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the season series between the Texans and Titans end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$0.01Jul 23, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Waymo launch in Boston, MA by December 31 2026?$0.24Jul 23, 22:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$0.01Jul 23, 22:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
31 closed markets, 29% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 21:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.