Generous-Nicety
0xe5619ddea9830dc86e9612fdb726c82b708e9231
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$84.47
Total PnL
$-6.45
Realised
$22.94
Win rate
100%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-07-12?
12 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$12.39
$12.39
- YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
12 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.90
$0.04
- NO
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 44%+?
10 shares @ 0.0¢·now 89.4¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$8.93
$8.93
- YES
Will Nico Schlotterbeck stay at Borussia Dortmund?
7 shares @ 5.9¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$5.63
$5.22
- NO
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
7 shares @ 0.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.29
$5.29
- NO
Will IK Start win on 2026-07-12?
5 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$5.00
$5.00
- YES
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?
7 shares @ 14.3¢·now 64.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.48
$3.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 12?
7 shares @ 9.1¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$4.04
$3.38
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.77
$-6.23
- YES
Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?
14 shares @ 50.0¢·now 22.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.17
$-3.83
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 12?$2.68Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 12?$2.79Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 12?$7.24Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Toronto on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or below on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:33 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:33 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:33 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Paris on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:33 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on July 12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:33 UTC
- MERGEWill SK Brann vs. IK Start end in a draw?$10.00Jul 12, 16:13 UTC
- MERGEWill SK Brann win on 2026-07-12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:13 UTC
- CONVERSIONSK Brann vs. IK Start$10.00Jul 12, 16:13 UTC
- SPLITWill SK Brann win on 2026-07-12?$10.00Jul 12, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill 9z Team Win the XSE Pro League$7.00Jul 12, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 11?$7.00Jul 12, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?$14.00Jul 12, 05:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 18:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 16:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.