Instructive-Return
0xe58ceeef4a6dc7972d705df24b2f6218b08d27fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
186
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-301.36
Win rate
0%
186 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 186- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 21?
6570 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-6.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 52°F or higher on May 21?
582 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 54°F or higher on May 22?
249 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.97
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 22?
206 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May 21?
156 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
138 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
120 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on May 22?
112 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 22?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?$9.53Aug 16, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 16?$9.09Aug 16, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 15?$8.05Aug 16, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 15?$9.90Aug 15, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 15?$4.80Aug 15, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 15?$4.83Aug 15, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 15?$4.82Aug 15, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?$4.85Aug 15, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14?$19.69Aug 14, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 14?$6.14Aug 14, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?$6.19Aug 14, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14?$6.21Aug 14, 13:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 11?$13.85Aug 12, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 11?$6.04Aug 11, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 11?$6.06Aug 11, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 11?$6.07Aug 11, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 11?$6.11Aug 11, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$2.02Aug 10, 17:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 7?$10.86Aug 8, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$20.20Aug 7, 19:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 186 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
186 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $8.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 14:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 13:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 186 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.