Arctic-Pate
0xe5908c03dcf99be3ee29e4ca51141aeceaf44884
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$202.59
Total PnL
$-573.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
128 shares @ 78.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$109.19
$9.19
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
333 shares @ 30.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$66.50
$-33.50
- YES
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
45 shares @ 22.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.66
$3.66
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
13 shares @ 74.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$13.24
$3.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
1181 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-99.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament?
823 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament?
550 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament?
429 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
286 shares @ 34.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-98.72
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.