Big-Hearted-Shaker
0xe5c20ffb947f3e12b43e8d472105d9fbf5772b81
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
150
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-881.55
Realised
$54.36
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 150- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 29?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$99.85
$-0.05
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?
100 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$99.50
$-0.30
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
90 shares @ 94.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$83.30
$-1.48
- NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
82 shares @ 92.1¢·now 93.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.75
$0.83
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 29?
60 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$59.97
$0.03
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 88.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.30
$1.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or below on July 30?
50 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$49.92
$-0.03
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
50 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$49.77
$0.09
- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$46.30
$4.21
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
44 shares @ 89.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.00
$1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?$99.81Jul 29, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or below on July 30?$49.95Jul 29, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 29?$59.94Jul 29, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 29?$99.90Jul 29, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$14.12Jul 29, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$19.74Jul 29, 06:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 28?$50.00Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on July 28?$70.00Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 28?$110.00Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 28?$109.78Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?$19.94Jul 28, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$9.96Jul 28, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$29.86Jul 28, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 28?$49.95Jul 28, 04:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 27?$98.00Jul 27, 23:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on July 27?$96.92Jul 27, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 27?$13.39Jul 27, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on July 27?$79.39Jul 27, 22:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $52.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 19:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 06:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.