Costly-Washtub
0xe687d53589de1435909fee63838b2051253e3156
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$67.27
Win rate
62%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?
6000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
667 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
385 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-39.87
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
348 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-33.90
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
300 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
300 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
300 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-104.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
229 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
217 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-27.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$7.31Jul 15, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score$7.58Jun 30, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sweden win on 2026-06-30?$18.54Jun 30, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$5.23Jun 17, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-06-17?$40.77Jun 17, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-06-17?$24.82Jun 17, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Croatia win on 2026-06-17?$24.51Jun 17, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia win on 2026-06-17?$11.31Jun 17, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$9.39Apr 15, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$3.09Apr 15, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$3.60Apr 15, 07:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$10.24Apr 15, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$3.92Apr 15, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$2.45Apr 15, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$11.76Apr 15, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$2.00Apr 15, 06:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$0.42Apr 15, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$1.00Apr 15, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$3.22Apr 15, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$5.00Apr 15, 06:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 03:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 10:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.