Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-628.69

Realised

$-22.54

Win rate

52 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET
13 shares @ 43.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-5.52
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4AM ET
13 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.64
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
12 shares @ 32.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-3.75
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
12 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-4.85
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
11 shares @ 46.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-5.10
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
10 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-5.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
10 shares @ 54.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-5.45
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
10 shares @ 58.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.58
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
10 shares @ 56.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-5.43
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - July 5, 6AM ET
7 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$3.10Jul 12, 19:44 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$3.10Jul 12, 19:44 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 2PM ET$6.66Jul 12, 19:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$2.79Jul 12, 19:03 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$3.10Jul 12, 18:29 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$3.10Jul 12, 18:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 2PM ET$3.00Jul 12, 18:08 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$2.54Jul 12, 18:07 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$3.00Jul 12, 18:07 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.00Jul 12, 17:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.00Jul 12, 17:01 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$6.66Jul 12, 15:59 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 12?$0.50Jul 12, 15:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$1.44Jul 12, 15:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$1.55Jul 12, 15:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$5.00Jul 12, 15:29 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.20Jul 12, 15:23 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$0.80Jul 12, 15:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$3.08Jul 12, 15:03 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$5.00Jul 12, 14:59 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

69/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 52 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

52 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry99 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $2.35
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 12, 10:33 UTC
Last active: Jul 12, 19:44 UTC
Win rate sample: 52 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:59:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data