Physical-Bay
0xe6f39272801846a3434ca46a798cfc2ac518b73c
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-483.41
Realised
$44.65
Win rate
60%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
728 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
551 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-42.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
257 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-32.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
237 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-27.34
- YES
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
217 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
211 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-96.08
- YES
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
132 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
98 shares @ 20.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.32Jul 23, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.28Jul 23, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.18Jul 23, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.22Jul 23, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.35Jul 23, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.34Jul 23, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.30Jul 23, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.24Jul 23, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.20Jul 23, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.46Jul 23, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.14Jul 23, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$15.34Jul 23, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.30Jul 23, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.18Jul 23, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.74Jul 23, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.15Jul 23, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$6.31Jul 23, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$5.20Jul 23, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$5.35Jul 23, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$27.93Apr 4, 17:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 4, 17:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 21:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.