Wallet digest

active

Activity score

84/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$5.6K

Total PnL

$-3.9K

Realised

$35.49

Win rate

75%

4 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
2500 shares @ 57.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$1.7K
$277.50
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
3005 shares @ 39.9¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$1.7K
$497.79
NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
1722 shares @ 66.8¢·now 80.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$1.4K
$227.48
NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?
721 shares @ 49.7¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$436.25
$78.03
NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in July?
271 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$255.63
$25.21
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
90 shares @ 33.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$34.65
$4.95
NO
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 75.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$29.39
$4.48
NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 26.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$25.00
$-27.00
NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 58.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$14.08
$1.22
NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026?
1851 shares @ 60.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.1K

Recent activity

YIELD$0.29Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 13 2026?$100.75Jul 20, 15:01 UTC
REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of July 13 2026?$109.00Jul 20, 15:01 UTC
REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of July 13 2026?$206.00Jul 20, 15:01 UTC
YIELD$0.29Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.28Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.28Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.29Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.29Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.25Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.23Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of July 13 2026?$79.36Jul 13, 15:03 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of July 13 2026?$192.12Jul 13, 14:55 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of July 13 2026?$50.05Jul 13, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 13 2026?$81.24Jul 13, 14:32 UTC
YIELD$0.24Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.23Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$160.20Jul 11, 09:15 UTC
YIELD$0.22Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
REWARD$3.81Jul 11, 00:00 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

23/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

75% win rate over 4 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity63 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence13 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk64 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 24
Avg trade size: $125.60
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 6, 14:30 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 4 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:11:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data