Wallet digest

active

Activity score

29/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.3K

Realised

$-6.54

Win rate

13 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 28

UP
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
4872 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$0.00
$-2.4K
UP
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 2PM ET
973 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025
$0.00
$-486.50
UP
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 11AM ET
526 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025
$0.00
$-263.00
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - August 5, 8AM ET
75 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026
$0.00
$-37.34
OVER
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5
9 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026
$0.00
$-3.96
UNDER
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
9 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-4.86
OVER
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026
$0.00
$-4.14
OVER
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
9 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-3.78
OVER
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
9 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-4.59
CINCINNATI REDS
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
9 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-5.40

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 5, 8AM ET$38.65Aug 5, 02:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$38.14Aug 4, 04:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$19.07Aug 3, 12:11 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$5.22Jul 30, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.61Jul 30, 08:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$5.30Jul 26, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$2.65Jul 26, 02:33 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$5.30Jul 24, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$0.25Jul 24, 03:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.40Jul 24, 03:49 UTC
TRADEBUYGaubas vs. Busta: Match O/U 22.5$2.72Jul 21, 09:34 UTC
TRADEBUYNBA Summer League: LA Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors$2.61Jul 18, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYNBA Summer League: LA Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors$0.57Jul 18, 06:07 UTC
TRADEBUYRakuten Monkeys vs. Uni-President Lions$2.71Jul 15, 03:48 UTC
REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins$6.30Jul 12, 18:01 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins$2.50Jul 12, 09:43 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins$0.59Jul 12, 09:43 UTC
REDEEMMuchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5$5.70Jul 9, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYMuchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5$2.85Jul 9, 01:05 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 4, 00:18 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

44/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 13 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence43 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry93 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 26
Avg trade size: $23.74
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
Last active: Aug 5, 02:58 UTC
Win rate sample: 13 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:06:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data