Guilty-Nondisclosure
0xe73334505f9604002e3d2a7d1d3f7713235ac58d
Wallet digest
Activity score
27/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-675.41
Realised
$-99.85
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
840 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-99.89
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?
750 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-07?
300 shares @ 20.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-62.00
- YES
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-30?
230 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-32.20
- YES
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-16?
201 shares @ 52.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-104.88
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?
185 shares @ 36.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-68.00
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 11 2026?
100 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-8.70
- YES
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-20?
55 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.89
- YES
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14?
42 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 20, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 17, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $9.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 22:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.