Wordy-Bark
0xe762c62c0cd669fe9f6c7ac08be8e2700418064b
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$465.92
Win rate
47%
113 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
2017 shares @ 80.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$157.47
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
1196 shares @ 74.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$939.18
$52.16
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
315 shares @ 85.9¢·now 82.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$259.88
$-10.61
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
404 shares @ 49.3¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$199.98
$0.62
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
221 shares @ 87.2¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$198.99
$6.09
- YES
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?
391 shares @ 33.1¢·now 49.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$191.81
$62.10
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
340 shares @ 57.2¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$188.57
$-5.93
- YES
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
870 shares @ 17.2¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$169.71
$19.67
- YES
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?
192 shares @ 64.9¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$159.96
$35.71
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
318 shares @ 48.3¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$138.35
$-15.26
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$2.78Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$11.90Jul 29, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$23.80Jul 29, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$3.90Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$2.79Jul 28, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$0.68Jul 28, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$3.40Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$3.46Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$3.81Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$4.61Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$5.50Jul 28, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$7.55Jul 28, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$25.95Jul 28, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$13.82Jul 28, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.57Jul 28, 22:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$6.45Jul 28, 22:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$3.42Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$19.88Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$0.87Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 113 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
113 closed markets, 47% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $8.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 113 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.