Imperfect-Eclipse
0xe77f1c5cea94b317455b57d83ea33f90db56b959
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$51.21
Total PnL
$-427.15
Realised
$-56.14
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
40 shares @ 68.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.80
$1.60
- NO
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?
34 shares @ 66.5¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$22.41
$-0.52
- NO
Azerbaijan x Armenia peace deal in 2025?
996 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-148.90
- YES
Israel strikes Iran before September?
257 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-25.66
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
254 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-86.60
- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
200 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-9.80
- YES
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
104 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Iranian coup attempt before July?
91 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?
89 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-13.33
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?
80 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?$5.51Jul 27, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?$17.42Jul 27, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$23.40Jul 27, 11:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$47.60Jul 21, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45.87Jul 21, 19:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $27.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 22:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.