Compassionate-Fame
0xe7f7e2d3d4d0e164239f3cc30a7928f4209de73b
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$512.48
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$334.96
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
800 shares @ 25.6¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$154.80
$-49.69
- YES
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10000 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$115.00
$-55.00
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
100 shares @ 75.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$82.55
$7.05
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 18.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$62.50
$-27.50
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
38 shares @ 83.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.45
$4.18
- YES
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
930 shares @ 2.8¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$33.94
$7.90
- YES
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals?
1364 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$17.05
$-0.68
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 24.3¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.56
$-2.56
- YES
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?
5 shares @ 97.0¢·now 67.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.38
$-1.46
- YES
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
50 shares @ 14.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.25
$-5.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$1.0KJul 27, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$100.00Jul 27, 01:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$50.00Jul 24, 09:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$25.00Jul 22, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$50.80Jul 22, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$100.17Jul 22, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$1.03Jul 22, 14:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James be on the cover of NBA 2K27?$1.20Jul 21, 22:26 UTC
- REWARD$1.45Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.02Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$133.01Jul 20, 19:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $60.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 22:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.