Alive-Waiting
0xe7fa127c9192379b6625a569a872cf277e326923
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$1.23
Total PnL
$-155.55
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 6.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.23
$0.23
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15?
407 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-6.08
- NO
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
400 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-28.00
- YES
No airdrop in 2025?
350 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-28.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - December 15, 9PM ET
250 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-45.90
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 20?
80 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 20?
70 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.80
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 20?
60 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 15?
47 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
20 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $3B one day after launch?$1.00May 24, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - December 16, 3AM ET$10.00Dec 16, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - December 15, 11PM ET$10.00Dec 16, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 16, 3AM ET$7.50Dec 16, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 16, 3AM ET$2.30Dec 16, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - December 15, 11PM ET$1.20Dec 16, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 15, 11PM ET$1.00Dec 16, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - December 15, 10PM ET$9.63Dec 16, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - December 15, 10PM ET$1.07Dec 16, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - December 15, 10PM ET$1.00Dec 16, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 15, 10PM ET$7.00Dec 16, 03:20 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - December 15, 3AM ET$0.00Dec 16, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - December 15, 3AM ET$10.00Dec 16, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 15, 9PM ET$1.38Dec 16, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 15, 9PM ET$0.09Dec 16, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 15, 9PM ET$1.52Dec 16, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 15, 9PM ET$10.00Dec 16, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - December 15, 9PM ET$32.90Dec 16, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 17?$0.20Dec 15, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15?$0.32Dec 15, 09:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $5.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 15, 04:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 09:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.