Flowery-Hotel
0xe86e5c9487779eaa421910f993e574162ff68642
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.05
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-124.24
Win rate
71%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 2.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.70
$-5.30
- YES
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.35
$-6.65
- YES
Will Malawi win on 2025-10-13?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will São Tomé e Príncipe vs. Malawi end in a draw?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
2535 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-79.00
- NO
Will Israel strike Syria by September 15?
2333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting?
2144 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?
1489 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
1126 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
1016 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-36.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $3.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.