Keen-Softening
0xe8795bd3d265b046b9c4822c9fd06ea391dc6d22
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$4.1K
Total PnL
$267.03
Realised
$126.72
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1250 shares @ 84.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$1.2K
$191.88
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
1000 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$967.51
$17.50
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
556 shares @ 96.1¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$535.96
$1.54
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?
364 shares @ 96.8¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$352.81
$0.09
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?
288 shares @ 97.9¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$281.97
$-0.35
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?
250 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$238.88
$-1.13
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?
250 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$231.25
$-3.75
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
100 shares @ 95.8¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$95.35
$-0.45
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$85.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
81 shares @ 95.4¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$77.21
$0.28
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$184.21Jun 23, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$35.51Jun 23, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$41.42Jun 23, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$53.08Jun 23, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$143.55Jun 23, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$62.00Jun 23, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$45.24Jun 23, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$57.39Jun 23, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$430.00Jun 23, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$37.42Jun 23, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$144.00Jun 23, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$145.35Jun 23, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$26.88Jun 23, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$31.26Jun 23, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$147.00Jun 23, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$96.00Jun 23, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$141.00Jun 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?$94.00Jun 23, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$38.76Jun 23, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?$97.90Jun 23, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $125.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 02:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 10:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.