Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-255.74

Realised

$-5.73

Win rate

81 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 81

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
4034 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026
$0.00
$-40.34
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
324 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026
$0.00
$-3.69
NO
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?
13 shares @ 99.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-12.67
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
13 shares @ 71.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-9.00
UP
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27?
11 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-10.86
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
10 shares @ 98.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
9 shares @ 86.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
9 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
9 shares @ 69.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
8 shares @ 97.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$43.14Aug 21, 18:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$151.80Aug 21, 14:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$150.39Aug 21, 14:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$163.44Aug 21, 14:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$150.36Aug 21, 14:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$11.56Aug 21, 14:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$306.66Aug 21, 13:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$150.49Aug 21, 13:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$150.46Aug 21, 13:38 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$152.20Aug 21, 11:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$150.41Aug 21, 11:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$151.77Aug 21, 10:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$150.36Aug 21, 10:23 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.06Aug 21, 10:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.00Aug 21, 10:18 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$303.57Aug 21, 09:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$150.39Aug 21, 09:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$150.36Aug 21, 09:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$566.87Aug 21, 09:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$100.07Aug 21, 09:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

57/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 81 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

81 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry40 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $127.92
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 21, 01:23 UTC
Last active: Aug 21, 18:20 UTC
Win rate sample: 81 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:26:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data