Rusty-Trading
0xe8a0bd271f6ec3779481ab05012f27aff4d74e39
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.47
Total PnL
$-206.70
Realised
$33.71
Win rate
96%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Centre Party (C) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
405 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$0.61
$-0.20
- YES
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
805 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.40
$-0.40
- YES
Will Tom Nelson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
420 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.21
$-0.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 3?
1408 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28?
1400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 14?
1334 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 12?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?$0.20Jul 21, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$0.05Jul 21, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$0.05Jul 21, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$0.10Jul 21, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$0.00Jul 21, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 21?$0.25Jul 21, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 21?$0.30Jul 21, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$0.25Jul 21, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$0.30Jul 21, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?$0.10Jul 21, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?$0.02Jul 21, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?$0.02Jul 21, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?$0.10Jul 21, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?$0.20Jul 21, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?$0.25Jul 21, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?$0.30Jul 21, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?$0.25Jul 21, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?$0.17Jul 21, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?$0.13Jul 21, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 21?$0.40Jul 21, 18:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
71 closed markets, 96% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 06:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 22:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.