Orange-Barometer
0xe8a10c725679233f9b36087d57840abc71252b76
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$171.50
Total PnL
$-10.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
1000 shares @ 19.0¢·now 6.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.50
$-121.50
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1000 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.00
$-45.00
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
600 shares @ 17.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.00
$-54.00
- YES
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
166000 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-996.00
- YES
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03?
2180 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.8K
- YES
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04?
1910 shares @ 81.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
1000 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-118.22
- YES
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-22?
1000 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-340.00
- YES
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
1000 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- OVER
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5
1000 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-489.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 20, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 17, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jun 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $193.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.