Poised-Rivulet
0xe8c6c48e73811aeb5340998ca00662eb696bf7f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$660.25
Total PnL
$-311.20
Realised
$-36.80
Win rate
0%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?
500 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$486.75
$2.25
- NO
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 83.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$81.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 82.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$79.50
$-2.50
- NO
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
100 shares @ 24.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$12.50
$-11.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
25 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.25
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
25 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$0.00
$-7.25
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
25 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
25 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
25 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
25 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$294.62Aug 19, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSkin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?$5.81Aug 19, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSkin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?$18.19Aug 19, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$82.00Aug 19, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$31.26Aug 19, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$127.36Aug 19, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$31.26Aug 19, 15:17 UTC
- MERGEWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$100.00Aug 19, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$17.17Aug 19, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$62.83Aug 19, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$11.51Aug 19, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$3.80Aug 19, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$3.69Aug 19, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$83.00Aug 19, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$2.53Aug 17, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.63Aug 17, 05:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$10.00Aug 17, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$7.34Aug 17, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$2.84Aug 17, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$4.57Aug 17, 04:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
59 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $22.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 01:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 20:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.