Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.6K

Realised

$-46.84

Win rate

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
1014 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-10.14
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
462 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-4.62
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
440 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-5.11
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
184 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-20.28
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
94 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.36
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
69 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-4.86
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
52 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-20.11
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
48 shares @ 20.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-9.88
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
35 shares @ 43.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-15.12
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
34 shares @ 58.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-20.11

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$0.63Jul 12, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$5.13Jul 12, 00:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$5.01Jul 12, 00:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$0.23Jul 11, 20:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$0.37Jul 11, 14:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$5.42Jul 11, 14:56 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$1.59Jul 11, 14:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$5.33Jul 11, 14:51 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.21Jul 11, 14:49 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$0.26Jul 11, 14:49 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.58Jul 11, 14:49 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$7.57Jul 11, 14:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$4.87Jul 11, 14:26 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$7.57Jul 11, 13:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$5.26Jul 11, 13:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$5.38Jul 11, 13:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.70Jul 11, 13:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$4.87Jul 11, 13:31 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.51Jul 11, 09:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$10.99Jul 11, 09:32 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry77 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 27
Avg trade size: $5.33
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 11, 07:34 UTC
Last active: Jul 12, 00:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:26:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data