Shameless-Newsletter
0xe8f9249f72ed1b9a749d5f193e2dc0a54dc0e537
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
94
Open notional
$10.19
Total PnL
$-931.47
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 94- NO
Will Solana dip to $10 in July?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.50
$-0.00
- NO
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.10
$0.00
- NO
Will Raymond Petersen be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.10
$-0.00
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.41
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$1.07
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Jorge Pinto win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
16650 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-16.65
- YES
Will Mintsuku win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?
5800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2025$0.00
$-5.80
- YES
Will Zellnor Myrie win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
4050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-4.05
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $2.88 on September 3 at 4PM ET?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $10 in July?$2.50Jul 10, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.24Jul 6, 13:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 1, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $30 in June?$1.10Jul 1, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$1.20Jun 30, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$1.20Jun 28, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.24Jun 28, 17:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 28, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 26, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.41Jun 25, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.30Jun 23, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.30Jun 19, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.41Jun 17, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $30 in June?$1.10Jun 16, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.40Jun 15, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 14, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1.00May 29, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$1.07May 23, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raymond Petersen be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$2.10May 21, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?$1.02May 21, 21:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $2.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 20:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 16:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.