Infatuated-Nun
0xe8fcb5f37ef114be04c7e54ff601730117340d3b
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.6K
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$604.92
Win rate
45%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Juan Brunetta (Tigres UANL) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Liga MX season?
75 shares @ 86.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Jun 13, 2027$71.89
$7.39
- NO
Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
75 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$65.70
$-1.05
- NO
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?
65 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$64.97
$14.92
- NO
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?
65 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$64.45
$9.20
- NO
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?
65 shares @ 78.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$64.25
$13.55
- NO
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?
65 shares @ 72.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$63.96
$17.16
- NO
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31?
75 shares @ 76.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$62.25
$5.25
- NO
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
65 shares @ 94.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$59.12
$-1.98
- NO
Will Dan Franzese be the FL-25 Republican nominee?
65 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$58.17
$-0.33
- NO
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 17, 2026?
65 shares @ 63.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$57.85
$16.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election?$13.80Aug 17, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?$42.40Aug 17, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?$5.00Aug 17, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$41.25Aug 17, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$27.00Aug 17, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$66.75Aug 17, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?$2.20Aug 17, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?$8.51Aug 17, 17:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?$1.00Aug 17, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gerardo Sánchez Zumaya win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election?$8.25Aug 17, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$42.00Aug 17, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election?$9.28Aug 17, 16:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Brink of War" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$75.00Aug 17, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the most viewed episode of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16 have at least 3.75 million viewers?$6.60Aug 17, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?$32.55Aug 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$25.10Aug 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?$17.93Aug 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?$25.69Aug 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$16.85Aug 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?$27.69Aug 17, 14:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
42 closed markets, 45% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $28.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 18:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.