Ringed-Toad
0xe91f68f7687671e40c1cac1d4be2c7113cd9a114
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-703.69
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?
35205 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2021$0.00
$-1.8K
- YES
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?
11951 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2021$0.00
$-329.11
- NO
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?
2408 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2021$0.00
$-94.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?
1671 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2021$0.00
$-94.89
- NO
Will an official Presidential inauguration take place in-person outside the US Capitol on January 20th, 2021?
513 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2021$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump pardon Edward Snowden?
10 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2021$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump pardon Julian Assange?
7 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2021$0.00
$-1.00
- REPS/PERDUE
Which party will win the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia? (Ossoff - D vs. Perdue - R)
1 shares @ 13.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?$0.00Sep 26, 04:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 26, 04:46 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 26, 04:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.