Negative-Meander
0xea12c83bb04d6b15a534374ea0c775d57d84993b
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$864.29
Total PnL
$64.33
Realised
$183.50
Win rate
59%
66 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?
29 shares @ 77.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$23.73
$1.53
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 1?
24 shares @ 85.7¢·now 87.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$20.88
$0.32
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 1?
22 shares @ 82.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$18.51
$0.71
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 1?
16 shares @ 86.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$13.52
$-0.24
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 1?
16 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$13.19
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 31?
13 shares @ 53.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.97
$5.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 1?
24 shares @ 40.7¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.12
$2.36
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 31?
12 shares @ 86.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.07
$1.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 31?
12 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.99
$0.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 31?
11 shares @ 83.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.99
$1.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 1?$5.20Jul 31, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 1?$5.00Jul 31, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 1?$0.28Jul 31, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 1?$1.44Jul 31, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 1?$5.44Jul 31, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?$6.48Jul 31, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 1?$0.67Jul 31, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 1?$0.13Jul 31, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 1?$4.16Jul 31, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on August 1?$1.52Jul 31, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 1?$2.80Jul 31, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 1?$2.96Jul 31, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?$2.62Jul 31, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?$0.13Jul 31, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?$0.93Jul 31, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 1?$1.76Jul 31, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?$4.40Jul 31, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 1?$6.08Jul 31, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 1?$3.84Jul 31, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 1?$1.76Jul 31, 23:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 66 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
66 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 22:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 23:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 66 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.