Grubby-Nondisclosure
0xea21528defb2440fb0aa2d38eea724c6c794f753
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$18.96
Total PnL
$-647.80
Realised
$-44.26
Win rate
22%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 26?
15 shares @ 23.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$4.80
$1.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 27?
15 shares @ 26.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$4.20
$0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?
10 shares @ 23.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.25
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 26?
6 shares @ 20.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.13
$0.93
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26?
6 shares @ 30.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.62
$-0.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 26?
10 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.45
$-0.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 25?
6 shares @ 36.0¢·now 23.1¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$1.38
$-0.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.12
$0.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 25?
10 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.01
$-2.50
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 18?
1060 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26?$1.86Jul 25, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?$2.39Jul 25, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?$1.09Jul 25, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 26?$2.99Jul 25, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 25?$2.16Jul 25, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?$12.40Jul 25, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?$0.87Jul 25, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?$1.08Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 27?$4.04Jul 25, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 26?$3.41Jul 25, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$0.26Jul 25, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?$5.98Jul 25, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$1.30Jul 25, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?$5.40Jul 25, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$2.31Jul 25, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?$3.83Jul 25, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 25?$1.93Jul 25, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 25?$6.71Jul 25, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 25?$3.18Jul 25, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 25?$0.46Jul 25, 04:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
32 closed markets, 22% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 13:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 13:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.